Written Feb. 5, 2010


Predictions of the Topics

Occasionally I get an email asking me, "Where are the 'predictions' on your website"?

The short answer is this: Except for the topics of "Your Work/Studies", "Your Home" and "Your Hometown", all the Current Part 1 topics (and the questions within those topics) are equally likely in your test. (One of the topics, "Your Work/Studies", "Your Home" and "Your Hometown" will definitely be used in your test.)

And all the current Part 2/3 topics are equally likely in your test.

The only time when I usually make "predictions" is just before a change of topics is going to happen, which is every four months. See below for more details on this point.


How to Find the Current Part 1 Topics



How to Find the Current Part 2/3 Topics



That's the short answer. But there are a few more details than that, as I explain below.

  1. Part 1

  1. Parts 2/3

However, the topics that are due for retirement (at the end of December, the end of April and the end of August each year) are sometimes still used during the next month (January, May or September), at the same time as new topics are being used. That means that during those months, there might be about 60 possible Part 2/3 topics.

  1. Predictions Before the Topic Change Time

It is now February 5 as I write this. My predictions for the January new topics were shown on this website from the middle of December to the end of January. There were four tests in January. After the test of January 30, 2010, I had gathered enough information about the real new topics and questions to make the "predictions" pages no longer needed. Yes, I am now still discovering new questions that are being used and even still discovering new topics but, in general, this website is starting to show a, more or less accurate picture of the topics and questions that will probably stay in use until the end of April. Of course, I will continue to discover new questions and better details about the already discovered new topics as time goes on, right up until the end of April.

If you want to read the predictions I wrote in December 2009, you can find them here:

Part 1 Predictions:

Part 2/3 Predictions:

You can read more about predicting Part 1 questions before the change time on this page:

  1. The Topics are the Same in Every Test Centre

On the weekend of your test, you will be wasting your time (!!) asking people on the internet bulletin boards what topics are being used in a particular room at a particular test centre. Your time would be better spent reading this website about the known topics and questions in current use.

Not only that, some of the Part 2/3 topics that each examiner has in his or her question book are changed (rotated) every few hours over each test weekend. This is because each examiner probably only carries, at any one time, about 20 of the (usually) 45 current Part 2/3 topics in his or her question book. So, on your test weekend, your predictions for any particular test centre, especially any particular test room, will be almost completely random and a waste of time.

However, on the first two test weekends following the change times (January, May and September), you might be able to get valuable information about what topics are being used at your test centre. (But don't worry about your particular test room information about the topics being used at your test centre is more relevant.) For example, on January 9, Chongqing was using new topics much more than other test centres (or even before other test centres had started using the new topics) and this information was on the internet bulletin boards on that test day. See here.

I have also sometimes noticed that a Part 2/3 topic and even a Part 1 topic that has been retired in China are still being used in another country, for example, Australia. However, in general, new Part 1 and new Part 2/3 topics are used all over the world at the same time, even if some topics that are retired in China are also still being used at some places overseas.