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Predictions for the Changes to the Test in May, 2012

• This page is about predicting the changes that will take place in the topics used in the speaking test overall, not predictions about what will be in any particular test on a particular day.

• During the month of May, about 1/3 of the test topics and questions will change. These topics will be used until the end of August, when another topic change will take place.

• The May change might even begin at the April 28 test.

• About 1/3 of the topics will be "retired" and about the same number of new topics will enter the test. Some of these "new" topics will, in fact, be old topics that were used in past years.

• These retiring topics are usually the oldest 1/3 of the Part 1 and Parts 2/3 topics but this is not always strictly the case. Sometimes one or two old topics stay in the test for more than 12 months.

• The change will not take place at one time, as a clearly distinguishable change. Instead, during the month of May and even possibly up to the first or second test of June, the topics that are being retired will still be in use, mixed with the new topics on some (or all) of the test days. Therefore, if you are doing the test at any time in May (or even the first or second test in June), you have to assume that you still might get one of the old topics that are going to be retired. This applies both to Part 1 and Parts 2/3.

• A reasonably accurate picture of what topics are in the test and what topics have been retired will be possible by the time the information about what topics were used in the June 16 test has been studied. But you will still be able to have an approximate idea of what is and isn't being used after the May 26 test.

Part 1

• None of the predictions here should be considered to be 100% certain. They are just predictions!

• The changes for Part 1 are less easy to predict than for Parts 2/3.

• "Work/Studies" is always a Part 1 topic.

• Both "Home" and "Hometown" are almost always both in the test but it is possible that one of those will not be used in the May-August, 2012 period.

• Generally speaking, those topics that are labeled N (i.e., new topics) in the January-April Part 1 list are more likely to appear in the May-August 4-month period than the other topics. But there have been times in the past when new topics have been used for one 4-month period, then temporarily retired for one or two 4-month periods, then return back to the test.

• More specific Part 1 predictions will be written soon.

   

Parts 2/3

• None of the predictions here should be considered to be 100% certain. They are just predictions!

• Topics 330 and 339 will probably be retired. But it is possible that one or both of those topics changed slightly in January, in this way making them "new" topics. The change might have been in Part 2 or in Part 3 or both. But so far, no indication of such a change has been seen.

• Similarly, Topics 372, 393 and 394 have a big chance of being retired. However, there are some hints that 393 was slightly changed from when it was labeled as Topic 305 (e.g., from "Describe a family photo" to "Describe a photo"), with possibly different or extra Part 3 questions, and possibly 372 and 394 are the same.

• Almost certainly, about 12 of the following topics will be retired: 352 to 363, 365 to 371, and 373 & 374. However, it is very difficult to predict which 12 of those 21 topics will be retired in May. Therefore, if you are going to do the test in May or early June, you have to assume that all of them are possible as your topic.

• Almost certainly, none of the topics that were introduced into the test in January/February 2012 will be retired.

• I predict several of the new topics in May will be very similar to some of the retiring topics, but with some key changes to the Part 2 wording and different sets of Part 3 questions. The result of this will make the new (or returning old) topics difficult to distinguish as new topics unless people report many details about the topics they get in the test.

• Probably 3 to 6 of the "new" topics will actually be old topics, returning to the test. But since I have hundreds of these old topics listed on this website, going back to 2005 or 2006, it is very difficult to predict which of those might return. You should at least quickly scan any old topic that you think might be hard for you. Some examples of harder topics are: 284, A New Law, 152, A Good Law and 208, A Science Lesson.

• As for possible new topics, I can only make the following guesses:

 

Since the test usually has a topic about clothes, one of the following topics might return or a similar new topic might come:

        295,  An Item of Clothing Bought for You 

        165, Clothing for Special Occasions

        67,  Clothes

 

Since the test often has a topic about visual art, one of the following topics might return or a similar new topic might come, (although we already have a 'photograph' topic):

                    258,  An Artist You Admire

                    118,  An Artistic Activity

                11,  A Work Of Art

                    81,  Art or Music

 

Since the test often has a topic about equipment, technology or science, one of the following topics might return or a similar new topic might come, (although we already have a 'handmade' topic and a 'furniture' topic):

      

199, A Machine or Electronic Device

149, A Piece of Equipment

51, A Piece Of Equipment

208, A Science Lesson

Since the test usually has a topic about leisure, hobbies or relaxing, one of the following topics might return or a similar new topic might come:

      

326.  A Leisure Centre

291.  Something You are Good At

276.  A Hobby

248.  A Relaxing Day

247.  Last Weekend (2)

202.  A Leisure Activity

196.  A Childhood Activity

179.  A Childhood Game (2)

94.    A Way to Relax

82.    A New or Exciting Activity

42.     Leisure Time

• As a wild guess, I would not be surprised to see one or more of the following topics return to the test (or a new topic that is similar):

2,  An Important Decision

4,  A Busy Time

46,  Some Recent News

151,  Some Interesting News (2)

316,  Some Interesting News 

180,  A Polluted City

299,  A Small Thing to Protect the Environment

302,  A Useful Piece of Advice (or any of the earlier "advice" topics)

 

• Of course, you probably won't have time to prepare answers for all of the possible topics listed above. Just quickly read (or scan) each one of them, and have a quick think about what you would say. This is in addition to preparing for the known topics that will almost certainly continue in the test, i.e. , those topics that were introduced in 2012.

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